In our last post, we discussed how well our long-range forecasting has become and the hints that October would close out with some very scary scenarios unfolding as the unlucky 13th named storm of the season, Melissa, had formed. The BMS Cat Analytics team has been tracking Melissa for two weeks since the tropical wave emerged off the African coast, and, unfortunately, as highlighted in our last BMS Tropical update, the well-performing AI Google DeepMind Forecast ensemble had many members reach a theoretical maximum intensity as Melissa approached Jamaica. This is a one-week forecast, which is pretty impressive as weather forecasting is no doubt undergoing a technological revolution.
Over the last 24 hours, Melissa has essentially reached the highest ceiling the Atlantic basin has ever experienced. Early this morning, Melissa is stronger than Hurricane Katrina, with a central pressure of 901 mb, and the pressure continued to drop further before landfall to a pressure of 892mb, which is historically low for any hurricane in the Atlantic Basin at any time of year, let alone late October. Only 2 other hurricanes in the Atlantic basin history have been lower than Melissa's current low-pressure reading. Pressure records are consistent back to 1979. With maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, Melissa joins 6 other storms with such high wind speeds, and is the only one with wind speeds over 185 mph (Alan 1980). Of course, Melissa's observation could be adjusted after the season, and the hurricane hunter aircraft continues to monitor and refine the overall observations.
One thing that really stands out about Melissa is that, typically, top-end hurricanes or typhoons like this do not last at peak intensity for prolonged periods. Hurricane Melissa has maintained Category 5 status for 30 straight hours, 18 of which at/above 150 kt (175 mph). As discussed in the last update, under ideal atmospheric conditions, hurricanes can do this. Very favorable conditions for intensification were well forecasted. Melissa has and is traversing waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 30 degrees Celsius (86°F) and an oceanic heat extends to great depths across the central Caribbean, with 86°F extending to a depth of 200 feet (60 meters). This is what you get. To readers of these updates, this should have been no surprise.
With Melissa now making landfall near Crawford, Jamaica, weather conditions will deteriorate across northern Jamaica today, with the strongest impacts expected between White House and Treasure Beach. Again, Melissa is now one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall and the first landfalling Category 5 since Dorian on Sept. 1, 2019. This puts Melissa in an elite list of Category 5 Atlantic landfalls in both pressure and winds.
Melissa Hazard Impacts
Jamaica and the nearly 3 million people on this island will experience some impacts of Melissa. So many communities will be forever changed in the next 12 hours. If there is any silver lining, the population center of Kingston, Jamaica, with just under 1 million people, will be on the outer edges of Melissa's strongest wind, as shown below in our BMS Verisk Respond 3-sec wind gust swath product. If Melissa stays on track with the expected landfall location and its size stays relatively small with 15-mile radius of maximum winds and the core of the most destructive winds occurs about 30 – 50 miles from the center of Melissa's eye, which means the maximum wind gusts in Kingston could range from 70 – 90 mph. Wind gusts along the southern coast near the landfall location could exceed 140 mph at landfall. However, keep in mind there is an abrupt change in elevation along much of the south coast of Jamaica, so higher elevations will experience higher wind speeds, and some valleys could have enhanced winds due to the Bernoulli effect. The high winds will likely result in large-scale power outages across the country, much as Hurricane Maria (2017) caused widespread, prolonged outages in Puerto Rico. Areas will be without power for months.
In our last tropical update, we discussed how Melissa would have slow motion, meaning a large amount of rain, on the order of 30″ in the mountains. There will be severe flooding in many small creeks, which will turn into raging rivers. Many of these pass-through villages and urban areas across the Island, compounding impacts. This extreme rainfall could wash out roads and bridges, causing landslides and isolating small communities for days or longer.
Graphics from the Pacific Disaster Center showing the areas at highest risk are posted below. Along with the landslide susceptibility.
In general, given Jamaica's steep terrain, storm surge should not be a big issue, as illustrated in the National Hurricane Center's Maximum of Maximum storm surge risk maps, but the areas in the map that blow could see over 9 feet of storm surge on top of the large waves that will impact coastal structures.
Given all the factors above, this will no doubt be one of the most impactful hurricanes to Jamaica since Gilbert in 1988, which made landfall as a category 4, and for some locations, this will be a generation event. With a more westward landfall location, the worst-case scenario is off the table compared to if Melissa had come ashore closer to the major population center of Kingston, which might be the only silver lining.
Melissa Insurance loss
Melissa will affect the entire island of Jamaica. The construction quality will be a significant factor when it comes to loss. Jamaica is prone to earthquakes, so there is less wood construction across the island, but roof quality—even in block-based buildings—is often poor and can be easily damaged in strong winds. Insured buildings have much better construction quality. However, overall insurance loss will be limited due to the unfortunately lower take-up rate across the Island. It is understood that the country's commercial take-up rate is about 30%. The auto take-up rate is about 50%. Unfortunately, the residential take-up rate in areas like Kingston is only 10%, highlighting the overall protection gap that exists in some nations.
One factor that complicates overall insurance loss estimates is that hurricanes typically make landfall from east to west along the Jamaican coastline, as was the case with Gilbert (1988), rather than from south to north. Only one major hurricane has made landfall from the south, which was the unnamed 1912 hurricane. This means the overall development of stochastic track catalogs, with strong category 5 hurricanes making landfall along Jamaica's southern coastline, is more limited in its understanding of potential loss, which is why, at this time, it is best to wait and see what event selection the catastrophe model vendors provide for reliable loss guidance. However, the extreme nature of Melissa making landfall as a strong Category 5 hurricane makes this a tail event. Such events tend to result in industry losses of over $5B. With the Jamaican GDP of just about $20B, you can see this will be a significant event for the island. This means the overall economic impact could be 30–250% of GDP, and the fallout could include a deep recession, significant unemployment, a temporary blow to tourism, and stress on local banks and insurers, which puts heavy pressure on public borrowing to rebuild. Maybe another way to put this type of loss into perspective is that 30% of U.S. GDP would be a $8.85T dollar loss, so, as one can imagine, the economic impacts will be significant.
Chapter Closed on 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Depending on how much of a favor Jamaica does for Cuba by disrupting Melissa, Cuba can expect Melissa to make landfall at Cat 2-4 strength. Inland flooding and mudslides from Melissa’s torrential rains are likely to be the main hazard in Cuba. Still, damage from high winds and storm surge is also expected to be substantial, depending upon the exact track of the hurricane in relation to the island’s population centers.
After crossing eastern Cuba, Melissa is likely to pass quickly through the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. This fast motion will limit the rains and provide a narrow strip of the most damaging winds as it crosses the island chain. Melissa will be weaker after traversing Cuba's rugged terrain and will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane in the Bahamas.
What is perhaps fitting as we close out the chapter on the last-named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is the target of Bermuda, which has been the target of at least four named storms this season, but thankfully with limited overall impact on the insurance hub.
